Nureddin Sabir, Editor, Redress Information & Analysis, writes:

Amid much fanfare, Egyptian President Abd-al-Fattah al-Sisi has announced an initiative aimed at ending the war between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the unelected Muslim Brotherhood / Al-Qaeda-backed “Government of National Accord” (GNA). 

The initiative, launched on 6 June and touted by the Egyptian media and politicians as the silver bullet that will  bring peace to the neighbouring North African country, came at the end of a conference in Cairo attended by LNA chief Khalifa Haftar, the Speaker of the elected parliament, Aqila Salih, and several foreign diplomats, including from the United States, Russia, France and Italy.

According to Sisi, the initiative includes a ceasefire starting on 8 June and the formation of a presidential council in which Libya’s three regions — Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fazzan — would be represented. The council would rule the country during an 18-month transition period followed by elections. It also includes the unification of all Libyan financial and oil institutions, and the disbanding of militias, so that the LNA and other security agencies can “carry out their responsibilities” by eliminating the terrorist and organised crime militias that have blighted the country since the ouster of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

“There can be no stability in Libya unless peaceful means to the crisis are found that include the unity and integrity of the national institutions,” Sisi said. “The initiative could be a new start in Libya.” He also called for the withdrawal of all foreign fighters in Libya.

To date Turkey’s Islamist and Ottoman revivalist President Recep Erdogan has brought into Libya at least 10,100 Syrian mercenaries and jihadist terrorists to fight alongside the GNA’s militias. 

Sisi’s initiative may succeed, at least for a short while, in drawing attention away from his failure to back the LNA to anywhere near the same extent as the support given by Erdogan to the Islamist and organised crime militias of the GNA. In addition to sending thousands of Syrian mercenaries and Islamist terrorists to Libya, Turkey has also participated directly in the war against the LNA, deploying drones, electronic jamming equipment, surface-to-air missiles, special forces and warships, which have enabled the GNA militias to reverse most of the gains made by the LNA since April 2019. 

Sisi’s initiative also overlooks a basic tenet of international relations. That is, if diplomacy is to be successful it must be backed by the threat of force or some other coercive action. That is not so in the case of Egyptian diplomatic moves in Libya. Sisi may succeed in getting his initiative endorsed by the United Nations Security Council and all existing international organisations. At most, they will issue resolutions and make supportive noises, but that is as far as it will go, especially now that the US has signalled its backing  for the Turkish military intervention and the Islamist terrorists in Libya. 

So, it comes as no surprise that the GNA and its supporters have rejected Sisi’s initiative. Both Qatar and Turkey, the two main sponsors of the GNA, rejected the initiative outright, as did GNA chief Fayiz al-Sarraj, notorious militiaman Fathi Bashagha, the GNA’s “interior minister”, and Al-Sumud “brigade”, a key GNA militia led by internationally wanted terrorist Salah Badi. Moreover, just hours after Sisi announced his initiative, the GNA militias, backed by Turkish special forces, frigates and drones, launched an attack on the LNA in the town of Sirt. They were beaten back but it is only a matter of time before Sirt is captured — unless Sisi or the other LNA backers, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, match Erdogan’s commitment to the GNA.

Libya’s problem is a security one that requires a military solution that obliterates the Islamist and organised crime militias. What Libya needs is decisive and resolute military support for the national army to bring about peace, security and stability. It does not need vacuus political initiatives or toothless resolutions.

This article first appeared in Dateline Libya, a Redress Information & Analysis page dedicated to the conflict in Libya.