Nureddin Sabir, Editor, Redress Information & Analysis, writes:

Fresh evidence has emerged suggesting that the United States sees Turkey as a useful proxy to support the unelected Libyan “Government of National Accord” (GNA).

The GNA is by backed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda and myriad other Islamist terrorist groups, organised crime groups, notably people and oil smugglers, Qatar and Turkey, which has brought at least 10,100 Syrian mercenaries and jihadists into Libya and participated directly in attacks on the Libyan National Army (LNA).

Since April 2019 the LNA has been fighting to liberate the Libyan capital Tripoli and the 15 per cent of the country still under GNA control. It had been supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, but there is doubt over whether these two countries, both obedient US client-states, still back it. There have also been reports of limited Russian support for the LNA.

In an interview with France 24 on 28 May David Schenker, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, warned that the Libyan conflict “could spin out of control if the Russians choose to escalate further”. However, he failed to mention that such escalation could only be in response to Turkey’s massive intervention on behalf of the GNA which, in addition to supplies of mercenaries and weapons, has seen Turks participate directly in fighting, most recently in the assault and capture of the strategic Al-Watiya air base, west of Tripoli.

A former Pentagon official, Schenker previously served as the director of the Beth and David Geduld Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a pro-Israel think-tank in the US capital.

In his interview, Schenker, who appeared a little nervous and unsure of himself, claimed that the GNA has “demonstrated some flexibility” towards US exhortations to cease fire and “return to negotiations as quickly as possible” but that such flexibility had not been reciprocated by the LNA and its commander, Khalifa Haftar.

It is noteworthy in this connection that the LNA declared a ceasefire on 12 January, which was honoured in the breach by the GNA militias, who used it to organise themselves, absorb their newly-acquired Turkish military wherewithal, and integrate the Turkish military personnel and the Syrian mercenaries and terrorists into their ranks. Furthermore, on 19 May the LNA decided unilaterally to pull back by two to three kilometres on all fronts around Tripoli to allow residents of the capital to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the festival marking the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. It called upon the GNA militias and their Turkish ally to reciprocate, but the reverse happened and they continued to bombard and launch probing attacks against LNA forces.

While in his interview Schenker showed signs of not being well informed about at least the North African aspect of his Near East brief, there is no doubt that US policymakers are well aware that among the mercenaries and terrorists brought into Libya by Turkey are many Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda elements (see here and here and here), and that the GNA is replete with affiliates of these terrorist organisations, which the US professes to fight, as well as heavily armed organised crime groups.

This leaves us with two possible conclusions: either the US is so locked into its Cold War mindset that it believes Russian support for an independent and sovereign Libya is more of a threat than jihadist terrorists, or it is not averse to a takeover of Libya by the Muslim Brotherhood and its protégés, Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda, among other Islamist terrorists. If the latter conclusion is the driver of US policy in Libya, then it suggests that the Turkish military intervention in support of the terrorists in is not just the product of Ankara’s maverick Islamist and Ottoman revivalist President Recep Erdogan, but is taking place with Washington’s blessing. If so, that would give credence to a report by the Egyptian news website Mada Masr on 19 May, which said that Egypt and the UAE — Washington’s uncritical clients in the Arab region — have already decided to end their support for the LNA and Haftar.

This article first appeared in Dateline Libya, a Redress Information & Analysis page dedicated to the conflict in Libya.