Israel, Corona and Abraham Wald

Corona and lateral thinking
Gilad Atzmon writes:

The Jewish state has been taking drastic measures to try to suppress the Coronavirus outbreak within its territory. Tens of thousands of Israelis are isolated in quarantine conditions. So far, hundreds of Israelis have been diagnosed as carriers of the virus. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu delivered an apocalyptic speech and had his corruption trial postponed indefinitely.

There are a few aspects peculiar to Israel and its Coronavirus hysteria. As of this writing, only one Israeli has died because of the virus. To date, only half a dozen Israelis are in critical condition. It is possible that the Israeli health system is more advanced than that of all the other nations. It is also possible that Israeli doctors are more gifted than all other doctors. It may even be possible that Jews are somewhat resistant to the Coronavirus. But it is more likely that Israel has been living with Corona for much longer than it is willing to admit. It is likely that, like China, Israel has already survived the worst of the Coronavirus.

 On 6 January Haaretz’s headline read: “Dozens hospitalised in serious condition amid Swine Flu outbreak in Israel.” The Israeli paper reported that “The number of visits to clinics and hospitals due to flu symptoms and pneumonia, which is a common complication, is about 18 per 1,000 people, compared to 7 per 1,000 in the same period last year.” The increase is mainly in those under the age of two and over 65. Back in January, the Israeli health system struggled to cope.

At the time Israeli health authorities attributed the rise in pneumonia to Swine Flu. The paper reported that 170 Israelis, including 45 children, had been hospitalised in serious condition, and that there were 16 deaths.

I am not a medical doctor and certainly not a virologist, I am, however, scientifically inclined. I wonder whether it is possible that Israel was hit with the Corona menace at the same time as China, or maybe even before it? Is it possible that Corona didn’t start in China and was just diagnosed there? Apparently, more people have started to believe that this may be the case.

Often it is the data that is missing that provides the path to the solution. Instead of just identifying who is catching the Coronavirus, we should also investigate those outbreaks that did not resemble pandemic “simulations”: those countries and regions that have not followed the predicted and lethal path.

Israel is not alone. Britain has been reporting a rise in pneumonia cases in recent years. I have seen reports on the rise in pneumonia and Swine Flu in the USA. Bloomberg asks: “A Coronavirus explosion was expected in Japan. Where is it?” Have we been misdiagnosing  COVID-19 as Swine Flu and pneumonia? This would help explain why the lethal virus is not spreading as fast as expected and why it is distributed unevenly around the world.

If my hypothesis is correct, the entire approach to the Corona pandemic may be fundamentally wrong, and unscientific. Our approach follows the rules of hysteria and imposes a timeline that supports a phantasmic narrative of a global holocaust.

What we need in order to help us with this conceptual mess is an Abraham Wald moment. Wald was a mathematician working at the American Statistical Research Group (SRG) during World War II. He and his team were engaged in questions to do with the survivability of B17 bombers. The riddle was as follows: If you don’t want your bombers to get shot down by enemy fighters, you armour them. But shielding your planes with iron makes them heavy, reduces their manoeuvrability, increases their fuel consumption and reduces their bomb-carrying capacity. Over-armouring your planes is a problem; under-armouring is also a problem. Finding the optimal line between the two was the riddle Wald and the SRG were asked to solve.

Wald noticed immediately that enemy bullets weren’t distributed uniformly on the B17s. There were a lot of bullet holes in the fuselage and hardly any in the engines.

While the air force wanted to armour the planes where they were most often hit, Wald said the armour shouldn’t be placed where most of the bullet holes were found. Instead, the armour should go where the bullet holes aren’t: on the engines. Wald realised that the reason there weren’t many bullet holes in the engines they examined was that planes that got hit in the engine were more likely to fall from the sky and therefore were not likely to be examined.

The lesson of Wald’s insight is clear. Often it is the data that is missing that provides the path to the solution. Instead of just identifying who is catching the Coronavirus, we should also investigate those outbreaks that did not resemble pandemic “simulations”: those countries and regions that have not followed the predicted and lethal path. We should review past diagnoses and figure out what exactly happened in Israel in December 2019. What has been the rate of pneumonia in Britain, Germany, Japan and the USA in the last two years? Instead of just testing people for the Coronavirus we ought to scan societies for Corona antibodies as well. It is possible that such an examination may reveal the best exit strategy from the current apocalyptic hysteria.

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